Abstract: In recent years, in the Chinese market, in addition to the continuous increase in installed capacity, the robot application industry has also continued to expand. The Chinese market will be the world's largest robot market in the future. In this regard, international robot giants have grabbed the Chinese market. Foreign robot companies represented by the four major families of abb, KUKA, Yaskawa Electric, and Fanuc account for more than 90% of the Chinese robot market. market share.
Tags: robotics, automotive industry, installed capacity
1. China Robotics Market
(1) The rapid growth of China's industrial robot market
China has become an important market for global industrial robots. In 2011, China’s robot shipments reached 23,000 units, accounting for 13.8% of global shipments, ranking fourth in the world, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51%. The compound growth rate of China's industrial robots from 2004 to 2012 was 29.7%, and the compound growth rate from 2009 to 2012 reached 71.9%.
The installed capacity of domestic robots reached nearly 27,000 in 2012, an increase of 19.5% compared to the previous year, which is higher than the forecast of the International Robot Association. According to the forecast of the International Robot Association and the exchanges with relevant domestic industry insiders, the growth rate in 2013 is expected to reach 20%-30%.
In 2012, the domestic inventory of industrial robots exceeded 100,000 units, second only to Japan, the United States, Germany, and South Korea, accounting for 8% of the world's inventory.
At present, relative to the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries, the density of domestic robots is still very low. The data in 2011 was only 21 units per 10,000 people, which is less than the world average of 55 units per 10,000 people. Even if incomparable factors are excluded, there is still a large room for improvement in domestic robot density, indicating that China's industrial robot market has huge potential.
In recent years, in the Chinese market, in addition to the continuous increase in installed capacity, the robot application industry has also continued to expand.
The automobile industry is still the largest robot application field in China, accounting for 41%, mainly six-axis general-purpose robots; consumer electronics, electronics/electrical industries, and semiconductors are labor-intensive industries, and SCARA and low-load articulated types are widely used Robots account for 21% of the total; the metal products industry is also dominated by six-axis general-purpose robots, accounting for 17%. The food/beverage/personal care industry is also a relatively large area. In recent years, parallel robots have been used to quickly load and unload goods.
From the perspective of growth in various fields, the 3C industry has the highest growth rate, of which the consumer electronics industry has a compound annual growth rate of 20.2%. Automobiles, as the field with the largest traditional usage, will grow the lowest in the next few years.
(2) Three factors drive the demand for robots in China
1. Rising labor costs
Factor 1: Labor costs are rising, and demographic dividends are gradually disappearing. The rise in labor costs has stimulated corporate robots to replace labor.
2. Declining labor supply
Factor two: the supply of labor has fallen. In the mid-1990s, the number of employees in my country's manufacturing industry dropped sharply. In 1998-99, we experienced the crisis of layoffs from state-owned enterprises, and traditional manufacturing industries such as textiles were the first to bear the brunt. After joining the WTO in 2001, the number of employees in my country's manufacturing industry began to slowly rise again. However, in the second year of the new century, the post-80s and post-90s working population has become the mainstream, and they are no longer willing to engage in a lot of monotonous and repetitive jobs in poor environments. The labor shortage in low-end industries in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta is obvious.
3. Government support
Factor 3: The upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the support of national policies. Popularizing robots is not only a simple replacement of labor, but also an important means to improve the efficiency and flexibility of manufacturing.
(3) Foreign robot manufacturers seize the Chinese market
The Chinese market is the world's largest robot market in the future, with rapid growth in recent years. International robot giants have rushed to the Chinese market. Foreign robot companies represented by the four major families of abb, KUKA, Yaskawa Electric, and Fanuc account for more than 90% of the Chinese robot market.
In 90% of the robot market share, the four major families of ABB, FANUC, Yaskawa, and kuka account for 57.5%. After the three major manufacturers OTC, Panasonic and Kawasaki Heavy Industries accounted for 16%. The market share of domestic robot manufacturers is relatively small. In 2012, the market share of local brand robots was 8%. Individual companies generally have problems such as small scale and weak innovation capabilities.
This kind of competition is related to the use of domestic machinery in the automotive industry, and foreign robot manufacturers are usually tied to large automotive companies. For example, Volkswagen only uses KUKA, and often buys 1,000-2,000 KUKA robots in a new factory. GM mainly uses FANUC. European car brands also consider ABB more. Domestic auto companies also have their own preferences. For example, Great Wall uses Yaskawa's Motoman, and JAC uses ABB. Domestic robot companies can't compete with foreign products in the automobile industry. The advantage of foreign robot companies in the automobile industry is because the automobile manufacturing industry still reserved abroad, and other manufacturing capacity has been transferred to China.
The best robot body is the European product. KUKA is the top. After the localization of the abb robot, the quality has declined. Japan's Yaskawa, FANUC, Nachi Fujitsu, Panasonic, etc., are of high quality and low price compared with European and American products, which are more in line with the needs of Chinese customers. Hyundai robots of South Korea are mainly used in Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hyundai Motors within the Hyundai Group, with relatively few export sales.
Japanese robot companies such as Yaskawa and Fanuc attach great importance to the Chinese market. Take Yaskawa as an example. Initially, it cooperated with Shougang on the robot body, and recently cooperated with Hangzhou Kaierda on the robot body. Moreover, Yaskawa has done very well in the domestic market in recent years, with offices in almost every important market. If no domestic company can do a good job of the ontology in the future, it is estimated that Japanese companies occupy the majority of the domestic robot market.
The four major families of robots attach great importance to the Chinese market and have invested and built factories in China. However, only ABB has achieved localization in R&D and production. Others such as KUKA and FANUC have no real localization. While occupying the market, foreign robot companies have cultivated talents for the domestic robot industry and a relatively complete supplier system.
(4) Current status of domestic robotics industry
1. The four major links of the domestic robot industry chain
The robot industry chain includes four major links: core parts production, robot body manufacturing, system integration and industry applications.
At present, the real profitable business of Chinese robot companies is system integration. The key components are not truly localized, resulting in the cost of domestic robots being much higher than their foreign counterparts, making it difficult to scale up.
2. The cost of domestic robots is higher than abroad
The cost of the domestic robot body is much higher than that of similar foreign products, especially the reducer. The price of the reducer purchased by domestic enterprises is nearly 5 times that of foreign enterprises. The prices of key components such as servo motors and controllers are also significantly higher than similar foreign products.
3. At this stage, the domestic robot industry is similar to that of the United States in the 50-60s
At this stage, the domestic robot industry is similar to that of the United States in the 1950s and 1960s. The robot industry has just emerged, and many companies have entered the robot industry. The difference is that the United States was the world's leading robot technology at the time, and now China's robotics technology is clearly behind the relatively mature technological level of the West.
4. Planning situation of robot industrial parks across the country
my country's robot industry parks are blooming everywhere, and local governments have adopted government subsidies and tax incentives to give birth to the local robot industry. On the one hand, it shows that the domestic robotics industry is indeed very hot, and everyone is very optimistic about the industry's prospects; on the other hand, there may be overcapacity in the industry soon, which is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry.
2. The development direction of the domestic robotics industry
(1) Future development path of domestic robot ontology
At this stage, domestic robot manufacturers cannot directly compete with foreign companies in the high-end field. The way for domestic robots to succeed lies in opening up the upstream and downstream industrial chain, producing economical robot bodies, especially breaking through key components such as reducers.
1. The successful path of domestic robot body-to open up the upstream and downstream industrial chain
The "Five Elements of Success" of the domestic robot ontology: The domestic robot ontology should develop well in the five major areas of "servo system", "controller", "core algorithm", "precision reducer", and "application and integration technology" At least 2-3 are good at.
These five core technologies are called the "Five Elements of Success" of the robot body. For domestic robots to develop well, at least 2-3 of these five areas must be good at them. First, the servo system and the controller must be thoroughly understood, and then the core algorithm needs to be better. High-precision mechanical transmission can be purchased from outside. Application and integration can be implemented by the ontology enterprise itself, or it can be completed by the integrator.
2. Open up the upstream and downstream industrial chain-"core components"
(1) Current status of core parts of domestic robots
Although the core components have been developed by domestic companies at this stage, there is a gap between the technology and foreign countries, and breakthroughs are needed, especially the reducer.
Servo motors are the highest-end brands in Europe and America, and the quality of Japanese companies is also very good. Generally speaking, there are more foreign suppliers to choose from, and the bargaining power is relatively weak. The most advanced domestic servo motors are Estun, Guangshu and Inovance technologies.
Controllers are relatively good at domestic companies. At present, domestic companies that are doing better include companies such as Gogo, Zhongweixing, Estun, and Guangshu, as well as scientific research institutes such as Harbin Institute of Technology and Beihang University.
Foreign robot companies, Nabo and Harmonic, two major reducer companies have long-term strategic partnerships, and they need a large amount of purchases, so they can purchase reducers at a lower cost. Domestic companies have weak bargaining power, and procurement costs are usually 3-5 times more expensive than foreign companies. Among the three key components, the reducer has the largest profit margin. Therefore, realizing the localization of the reducer is the key for domestic robot companies to reduce the cost of the body and to achieve a large increase in the sales of domestic robots.
(2) Among all the key components, the localization of the reducer is the top priority.
The global reducer market capacity is estimated to be more than 10 billion. According to the quantity, the RV reducer and the harmonic reducer are 6:4. The RV reducer is mainly used for robot joints over 20 kg, and the harmonics are used for robots below 20 kg. Joints and RV reducers are more complicated than harmonic reducers due to their more complex components and higher load-bearing strength. Moreover, the investment scale of the RV reducer production line is much larger than that of harmonic reducers. Worldwide RV reducer companies mainly include Nabtesco, Spinea and Sumitomo, with Nabtesco as the main ones; harmonics are mainly Harmonic.
There are many domestic companies that are developing reducers or planning to develop reducers. RV reducer companies include Nantong Zhenkang, Qinchuan Development, Shandong Shuike, etc., and harmonic reducer companies include Jiangsu Green and Zhongji Kemei. At present, it seems that the harmonic reducer may be domestically produced relatively quickly, and it may take some time for the RV reducer to be domestically produced. If the harmonic reducer can break through quickly, it can cooperate with domestic robot body enterprises to meet the strong demand of domestic 3C and other industries for small general-purpose six-axis robots under 20 kg, and promote the localization of robot bodies.
Taking into account the domestic technological level and the lack of corporate experience, it is estimated that after the localization of the reducer in the future, there will still be a certain gap between the service life and accuracy of the world-class products.
(3) Domestic robot ontology companies have two ideas for breaking through key parts.
Idea 1: Take the route of independent research and development of key components. Domestic companies such as Nanjing Estun and Guangzhou CNC use their original experience in machine tool CNC systems and servo systems to independently develop robot controllers and servo systems.
Idea 2: Take the route of in-depth cooperation, that is, open up the upstream and downstream of the robot industry. Eft and other companies have joined with upstream key component manufacturers, such as Gogo, Nantong Zhenkang, etc., to make breakthroughs in key components such as reducers.
3. Open up the upstream and downstream industrial chain-"robot body"
Similar to foreign countries, many domestic robot manufacturers originated in upstream and downstream related industries, and most of them entered the robot industry in the past 5 years. In addition, unlike foreign countries, SIASUN Robotics and Boshi Co., Ltd. originated from the transformation of scientific research institutes, and are the earliest companies in my country that entered the robotics industry.
(1) Domestic and foreign robot companies have different concerns
Chinese and foreign robot companies have different concerns: foreign companies pay more attention to the development of cutting-edge technologies, while domestic companies pay attention to breakthroughs in core components and to seek scale breakthroughs in low-end production capacity industries.
Foreign robots have also occupied a solid position in the domestic market, but because of the different requirements for robots at home and abroad, domestic robot companies also have opportunities. Foreign countries require robots to operate for 10-15 years, but the cost is high. Domestic customers may pay attention to the requirement that the cost can be recovered within two years. Therefore, China's robot market may not have high requirements for life, but high requirements for cost recovery period. While reducing the number of people, the shorter the payback period, the better.
(2) Economic ontology is the main development direction
In the case of different concerns on the robot industry at home and abroad, economical ontology is the development direction of domestic robots at this stage, including low-cost six-axis general-purpose robots and three- and four-axis special robots. In a broad sense, automation equipment that can be freely programmed is considered a robot, which can be replaced by humans.
As the foreign robotics industry is following the growth of the automotive industry, and the automotive industry has very high requirements for robot accuracy, efficiency and stability. In the automotive field, domestic companies cannot compete with foreign companies in the short term. Therefore, domestic companies should focus on the development of economical robots used in general manufacturing industries other than the automotive industry.
The so-called economical ontology is divided into two categories: one is that domestic core components can make breakthroughs, and domestic robot companies can mass-produce general-purpose six-axis joint robots that reduce costs; the other is dedicated robots used in a certain field. For example, scara robots and desktop robots used in the electronics industry are special machines in the economical ontology. In addition, the truss robot used for loading and unloading machine tools is also a special plane. This kind of special robot is usually three or four axis, and it is usually called a manipulator abroad.
Special-purpose robots such as truss robots and desktop robots can usually avoid the disadvantages of foreign companies' control of switch joint parts. For example, the joints of a truss robot are connected in parallel, and the error of each joint will not accumulate. Unlike the six-axis general-purpose robot, the joints are connected in series. The precision requirements for each joint are very high. The errors of each joint will accumulate, which will lead to terminal operations. The error is large. Therefore, the special plane can use a transmission device with lower precision.
(3) Freely programmable automation equipment
In a broad sense, automation equipment that can be freely programmed is considered a robot, which can be replaced by humans. Taking AGV as an example, an ordinary standard AGV can reach three porters, one driver and one transporter, and the effect of manual replacement is obvious. Beginning in 2010, the domestic AGV market demand has doubled. It is estimated that the domestic AGV demand will reach 50,000 units in 2014, which is 10 times that of 2010. The total installed capacity will reach 250,000 units, becoming the world's largest consumer of AGV country. At present, the most application of AGV is in the automotive industry, followed by the 3C industry.
The advantages of Siasun robots are not only strong in system integration, but also in trying various types of automation equipment. Siasun AGV is already a leading product. In the future, other special robots and programmable automation equipment can be developed, such as vacuum cleaning. Manipulators, and automatic palletizing equipment, etc.
4. Optimistic about robot companies that can develop ontology
We are optimistic about robot companies that can develop ontology that suits the needs of the Chinese market for a long time. Because robot ontology is a master of automation technology, it has the strongest bargaining power in robot companies and can effectively integrate upstream zero-price companies and downstream system integrators.
Judging from the development experience of foreign robot companies, usually the scale of robot companies that have both the body and the parts and the integration business will be much larger than that of pure integration or only the parts business. The robot body is a master of automation technology. It occupies the most important position in the entire robot industry chain and has the greatest bargaining power. Robot ontology companies can take advantage of this advantageous position to integrate upstream parts companies and downstream system integration companies.
Of course, the development of the robot body only completes 1/3 of the work, and the robot body needs to be combined with the process and integration technology in order to finally meet customer requirements and establish a solid competitive advantage.
We believe that the robot advantage companies that may emerge in China in the future will definitely be companies that can develop world-leading robot bodies, and they will also be engaged in system integration business and even parts business.
5. Frontier of domestic service robots
Similar to foreign countries, medical robots are the pioneers in the industrialization of service robots in my country, and the surgical robots of the Robot Institute of Harbin Institute of Technology and the Robot Institute of Beihang University are leading domestically. In the field of household robots, Suzhou Cobos is known as China's "IROBOT". Its products are cheaper than foreign countries and quickly occupy the domestic market.
(1) Industrialization pioneer of domestic service robots: medical robots
The laparoscopic surgery robot of Harbin Institute of Technology has completed the animal bile extraction experiment, and it is estimated that clinical trials will be carried out within 2 years. The performance of the Harbin Institute of Technology surgical robot is close to that of the Da Vinci robot of the American Intuitive Surgery Company, but there are more advanced places. For example, the Harbin Institute of Technology surgical robot can achieve feedback during surgery and further improve the quality of doctors' operations.
In addition, domestic robot companies represented by Suzhou Boshi are actively exploring other types of medical robots, such as rehabilitation robots, gamma knife robots and intestinal surgery robots. The above products are expected to be truly industrialized in the next 5-10 years.
(2) Cobos: China's IROBOT
Suzhou Cobos was originally the foundry company of Electrolux vacuum cleaners. Since 2009, it has launched "Ground Protection" sweeping robots, the price is about half of IROBOT's IROBOT, quickly occupying the domestic market. It is estimated that the revenue in 2013 has reached 1 billion yuan, and the domestic market share exceeds 50%.
According to expert estimates, the current domestic penetration rate of household sweeping machines is only 0.4%, and similar products have entered the US market much earlier than China. 12 years of fermentation have passed since 2001, and the penetration rate in the United States has reached Therefore, the market prospects for home service robots represented by sweeping robots are promising.
(2) The system integrator is "innately" small in scale
1. Current situation of my country's system integrators
(1) Comparison of revenue scale between major domestic integrated enterprises and foreign counterparts
Because foreign system integrators focus on the high penetration rate of robots and the current automotive industry with the largest demand for system integration, they usually have long-term partnerships with car manufacturers, and the revenue scale can reach close to 10 billion. Take Comau as an example. Among them, China's customers are mainly auto companies, not only foreign auto customers, but also domestic customers such as Changan, Chery and Jianghuai.
Compared with foreign counterparts, domestic integrators have a shorter development time and usually cannot compete with foreign integrators in the automotive field. Therefore, their scale is relatively small.
(2) Comparison between major domestic integrated enterprises and foreign counterparts
Large foreign system integrators usually have a strong competitive advantage in a certain process. For example, Dürr has a very strong advantage in the integration of automobile coating production lines. Of course, Dürr has also expanded the business of system integration accidents, such as cleaning and filtration systems.
Domestic system integration companies are usually not limited to a certain process, but mainly focus on a certain industry. Only Siasun, which has the strongest integration capabilities, can get many orders from other industries outside the automotive industry. Of course, Siasun has not only system integration business, but also logistics and warehousing complete equipment and transportation automation systems. In terms of business diversification, Siasun and Durr are similar.
(3) Comparative advantages of domestic system integrators
However, unlike domestic ontology manufacturers facing strong competition from foreign companies, domestic system integrators have many local comparative advantages, including channel advantages, price advantages, and engineer bonuses.
2. The system integrator is "born" small in scale
Four factors determine the small scale of integrators
System integration projects are non-standardized, each project is different and cannot be copied 100%, so it is difficult to scale. Those that can scale up can generally be replicated. For example, if a product is developed, it is rarely changed after the model is finalized. Each model product is the same, and a large number of scales can be replicated through production and sales. And because of the need to advance funds, integrators usually have to consider the number and scale of simultaneous projects.
As the robot is a secondary product, it is necessary to be familiar with the craftsmanship of the downstream industry, and to complete reprogramming and deployment. For domestic system integrators, if they focus on a certain field, they can usually obtain higher industry barriers, and there is no problem in survival. However, due to industry barriers, it is difficult to achieve cross-industry business expansion, and mergers and acquisitions are also different, so it is difficult to scale up . Robot system integrators should have been small, at least at this stage domestic integrators are not large. Generally 1 billion, 5 billion, 1 billion is the threshold. Companies with less than 100 million yuan accounted for the majority. Those who can achieve 500 million yuan are the industry leaders, and there are only a handful of companies with more than 1 billion yuan nationwide.
(1) The system integrator is a human-centric order-oriented enterprise
The core competitiveness of system integrators is manpower. Among them, the most core are sales personnel, project engineers and
Field installation and commissioning personnel, sales personnel are responsible for taking orders, project engineers design the scheme according to order requirements, installation and commissioning personnel go to the customer site for installation and commissioning, and finally deliver them to customer service. Almost every project is non-standard and cannot be simply copied.
The system integrator is actually an order-based engineering service provider with light assets. The core assets are sales personnel, project engineers, and installation and commissioning personnel. Therefore, it is difficult for system integrators to expand their scale through purchase and purchase.
(2) System integrators need to advance funds
The payment for system integration usually adopts the "3331" method, that is, 30% of the drawings are approved, 30% after delivery, 30% after installation and commissioning, and 10% of the warranty money is left. According to such a payment process, system integrators usually need to advance funds.
Generally speaking, the system integrator will not have too much financial pressure, but if several projects are carried out at the same time, or the amount of a single project is too large, there will be financial pressure. After all, many integrators are also out-of-contract services and need to pay the supplier. , Some external components require cash on delivery.
3. The future development direction of system integrators
(1) The rapid increase of integration business in other industries outside the automotive industry. As can be seen from the sales of robots in various fields, the distribution of system integration business has changed. At this stage, the automobile industry is the largest application market for domestic industrial robots. With the continuous improvement of market recognition of robot products, robot applications are extending from the automotive industry to the general industry. According to IFR data, the increase in robot sales in the domestic food processing industry and metal processing industry in 2011 was significantly higher than that in the automotive industry, indicating that system integration in other fields other than automobiles is increasing rapidly.
(2) The concentration of the system integration industry has decreased and the standardization level has increased. Due to the rapid increase in domestic manufacturing automation demand, the automation integration industry is also very hot. According to the data obtained by grassroots research, there are more than 200 companies engaged in automation system integration in Suzhou alone, compared with less than 30 4-5 years ago. As there are more and more system integration projects in industries other than automobiles, the increase in segmented areas will lead to a further increase in the number of system integrators. It can be predicted that the industry concentration will further decrease in the next few years. With reference to foreign experience, in the future, system integrators who have core competitiveness and can refine the integration of large-scale industries such as 3C will stand out, reaching billions in scale.
Another trend of system integration is that the degree of project standardization will continue to increase, which will benefit the integration of enterprises to scale. If only the robot body is standard for system integration, the standardization degree of the entire project is only 30%-50%. Many integrators are now promoting the standardization of robot bodies and processes, and the standardization of future system integration projects is expected to reach about 75%.
(3) The future of system integration is smart factory
The smart factory is a new stage in the development of modern factory informatization. The core of the smart factory is digitalization. Informatization and digitization will run through all links of production, reducing the uncertainty between design and manufacturing, thereby shortening the conversion time from product design to production, and improving product reliability and success rate.
The business of system integrators will develop in the direction of smart factories or digital factories in the future. In the future, they will not only integrate hardware equipment, but also integrate top-level architecture design and software. The recent increase in orders for the digital factory of Siasun Robotics fully illustrates this trend.
3. The trend of low-end production capacity automation in the manufacturing industry is an opportunity for domestic robots
(1) China is a big manufacturing country, and manufacturing efficiency needs to be improved urgently
China is known as the "world factory". In 2012, the manufacturing industry increased by nearly 20 trillion yuan, nearly twice that of the United States. However, the per capita output value of China's manufacturing industry is only half that of the United States, indicating that domestic production efficiency is significantly lower than that of developed countries.
China's manufacturing industry is in a stage of transformation and upgrading. on the one hand. The manufacturing industry seeks efficiency and flexible manufacturing; on the other hand, as labor costs rise, manufacturing companies begin to seek robots to replace humans.
(2) Popularizing robots is an effective way to improve manufacturing efficiency-Japanese experience
After the 1990s in Japan, the growth of gross manufacturing output and GDP has ceased. However, data such as the value added per capita of the manufacturing industry has continued to grow, indicating that with the reduction in the number of manufacturing employees, the use of robots has been popularized and the degree of automation has been increased, which has greatly increased labor productivity.
(3) China's opportunities for "low-end production capacity"
Compared with the automobile industry, my country's so-called "low-end production capacity" is huge. In 2012, the output value of the entire automobile and parts industry was 4.67 trillion yuan, and the total output value of the five industries, including food manufacturing, rubber and plastic product manufacturing, metal products and pharmaceutical manufacturing, was 8.8 trillion, almost the automotive industry Twice. In addition, the fixed asset investment in the electrical device industry in 2011 was approximately 230 billion, much higher than the 140 billion in the automotive industry. These so-called "low-end production capacity" other than these cars will certainly surpass the auto industry when the demand for automation rises.
Now foreign robot companies have grown up with the automotive industry, but they are not familiar with other so-called "low-end production" industries, and domestic companies have opportunities in these areas. Traditional industries such as domestic appliances, ceramics, petrochemicals, and feed have huge production capacity, and there is a need for industrial transformation and upgrading, and the trend of automation is irreversible. The most outstanding performance is the automation demand of private manufacturing in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta in recent years.
The shortage of manpower is undoubtedly the main reason why the domestic manufacturing industry needs to increase the degree of automation. There are two explanations for the current shortage of manpower in the domestic manufacturing industry. One is that China has always lacked high-tech industrial workers, and there is no environment for converting migrant workers into industrial workers. Robots or automated equipment are needed to fill this space; Second, young people nowadays are unwilling to do dirty and tiring work, and their stability is very poor.
Automated transformation of "low-end production capacity", on the one hand, has fewer production lines for easy management, high efficiency, and guaranteed quality. On the other hand, it is convenient for company executives to devote more energy to other business modules that are closer to the market, such as sales and services. It is easy to maintain the company's competitive advantage.
(4) Domestic economic robots are suitable for "low-end production capacity"
It can be seen from the statistical data that although the articulated robots (ie, general-purpose six-axis robots) used in the Chinese market for high-end production capacity still account for a large market share, the growth rate is limited. In the later period, economic robots with low-end production capacity, such as SCARA robots and parallel robots, have potential for growth.
According to IHS data, in the domestic robot market in 2012, general-purpose six-axis robots accounted for the largest proportion, about 87%. However, due to the rapid increase in automation demand in areas other than automobiles, it is estimated that the revenue generated by SCARA robots and parallel robots is expected to grow the fastest from 2012 to 2017, due to the labor shortage faced by the industries that use them, rising labor costs, etc. problem. That is, food and beverage, 3C and other labor-intensive industries, more and more companies use robots.
As the demand for so-called "low-end production capacity" continues to increase, it is estimated that the market share of general-purpose six-axis robots will continue to decline in the future, but it will still be the main robot body used in China.
1. A classic case of "low-end production capacity" automation demand: As most of the global 3C industry production capacity is in China, the 3C industry mainly used domestic labor cost advantages in the past, and the degree of automation was very low. From Foxconn’s Million Robot Plan, it can be seen that the domestic 3C industry is now in a critical period when machines replace labor. There are four major 3C industries, namely, large income, large enterprises, large employment base, and large demand for robot replacement. It is one of the best industries to implement automation upgrades.
The 3C industry uses some six-axis robots such as grinding and handling, but the most widely used are SCARA robots for assembly and desktop robots for dispensing and soldering. The 3C industry includes some large companies, such as Foxconn, Asus, BenQ, Goertek and AAC Technologies, as well as a large number of small and medium-sized electronics factories.
(1) 3C industry assembly "master": SCARA robots are mainly used in the 3C industry, and the theoretical market is very large. Take Asustek as an example, with 100,000 employees, at least 10,000 are screwing on the production line. There are 10-20 workstations on each production line for screwing. If the SCARA robot is used to screw the screws, the space for manual replacement will be very large.
At present, SCARA has not made a complete breakthrough in the application level of 3C industry, and the market demand has not been fully reflected, but the potential in the next few years is huge. At present, the sales of SCARA in the domestic market are less than 3,000 units.
The scale of SCARA robot companies is generally small. It is estimated that Epson's SCARA robots sell about 2,000 units a year, with sales of nearly 200 million. However, in the future, a very large SCARA robot company is expected to grow in China.
(2) Desktop robots for soldering and dispensing in 3C industry
The domestic 3C industry has a huge potential demand for desktop soldering and dispensing robots, and the theoretical market capacity is tens of billions. The desktop robots of Japanese companies also moved to China along with the electronics industry and entered the Chinese market at the same time. In the electronics industry, product upgrades are faster, and the payback period for production lines is more stringent. Generally, it is within one year or six months, so it is very sensitive to the price of robot body and system integration.
In the past, robots in foreign countries (mainly several Japanese companies, including Chelemei, IAI, Epson, and Yamaha) were expensive, ranging from 150,000 to 200,000 per unit, which was too expensive for many domestic electronics companies. Since domestic robot companies (such as Changzhou Kuaike, Harbin Institute of Technology) developed low-cost robots (single unit price of 40,000 to 50,000), the market demand for desktop robots in the 3C industry has increased rapidly.
2. Several application areas where robots are in strong demand in the past two years
The previous analysis mainly analyzes the demand for robots from an industry perspective, and removes industry factors. From the perspective of specific application areas, the areas where demand has grown rapidly in the past two years include machine tool loading and unloading (including sheet metal), palletizing, and casting.
According to HIS data, the largest application field of China's industrial robots in 2012 was welding, accounting for 5%, mainly using general-purpose six-axis robots. It is estimated that the compound growth rate will be 4.5% from 2012 to 217.
The most common applications in the 3C industry are assembly/disassembly, soldering and dispensing. Many companies in the 3C industry are facing labor shortages and increasing wages and management costs. Due to the high complexity of the work, special robots such as SCARA robots can perform these simple actions well. It is estimated that the application of assembly/disassembly in the future is expected to grow the fastest, and the compound sales growth rate from 2012 to 2017 will reach 20.6%
Material handling is the second largest application area, accounting for 24%, mainly including material handling, palletizing, and processing. Due to increasing attention to worker safety and rising wage costs, more and more industrial robots are introduced into the material handling process. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of sales in this area from 2012 to 2017 will reach 14.8%.
(5) Estimated cost of automation transformation in domestic manufacturing
(1) The future domestic overall automation market capacity estimation
By estimating the process of domestic manufacturing capacity automation transformation, it is estimated that my country's automation integration market capacity will reach 176.3 billion yuan in 2020.
According to the situation of industry research, generally, a manufacturing enterprise with a revenue of 3-4 billion yuan usually needs 10 million to 20 million automation transformation costs. Therefore, we estimate the cost of automation in my country's manufacturing industry at a rate of 4% (350 million: 15 million).
Considering that the automation transformation of some industries cannot be completely replaced by robots, and the implementation of automation transformation takes time, we estimate that by 2020 the domestic manufacturing capacity automation transformation rate will reach 60%.
The total revenue of major domestic manufacturing industries in 2012 was about 20 trillion yuan. Assuming that different industries will grow at a rate of 8%-15% in the future, the total revenue of major domestic manufacturing industries is expected to reach 46 trillion yuan by 2020.
Based on the above conditions, we can estimate that the cost of automation in my country's manufacturing industry will be 115.3 billion yuan in 2017, and will reach 176.3 billion yuan in 2020.
(2) Forecast of domestic robot market capacity
In 2012, my country's robot body market reached 4.8 billion yuan, plus integration, the total robot market capacity reached 19.2 billion yuan.
According to the analysis of comprehensive industry experts, we expect the average annual growth rate of China's robot market to be 20%-30% in the next 10-20 years.
Robots are the focus of the automation transformation of the manufacturing industry. By 2020, the robot market capacity is predicted to be 123.4 billion yuan, accounting for 70% of the estimated total automation transformation cost, because some automation transformations do not require robots.
Fourth, the recent breakthrough direction and future development stage of the domestic robotics industry
(1) Breakthrough ideas in each link of the industrial chain
my country's robotics industry needs to make breakthroughs in three aspects: key parts, robot body, and system integration.
In the breakthrough of key components, there are two ways of thinking, including self-made and in-depth cooperation with external companies. The localization of reducers is the top priority; in terms of the main body, we are optimistic about the main body companies that can break through the key parts in the long term, and the domestic main body is short-term The breakthrough direction lies in the automatic replacement of low-end production capacity, and in the long run, it still needs to develop to the high-end. Domestic system integrators have comparative advantages over foreign countries. There are two development directions: one is to do in-depth expertise in relatively large application fields, and grow with the growth of downstream enterprises; the other is to have the ability to work in cross-fields through cross-field operations. Take orders on the law.
(2) Possible breakthrough points and main directions in the next 3-5 years
Key components: Joint components are expected to achieve major breakthroughs, especially RV reducers and harmonic reducers. It is estimated that RV reducers will take 3-5 years, but harmonic reducers may be faster. Servo motors may achieve breakthroughs through overseas mergers and acquisitions.
Low-cost six-axis general-purpose robot: At present, the localization of harmonic reducers should not take too long. Small six-axis general-purpose robots may soon develop a low-cost body. Moreover, judging from the proliferation of global robot applications from automobiles to other industries, the small robot market has huge potential. Recently, domestic robot companies have made rapid progress in the field of small robots. Large robots need to wait for the RV reducer to break through first. It is estimated that there will be a six-axis general-purpose robot company with a revenue of 500 to 1 billion in the next five years.
Special robots below four axes: With the increase in domestic demand for "low-end production" automation, the market demand for truss robots, SCARA robots, DELTA parallel robots and desktop robots will increase rapidly. Robot companies that can develop the above-mentioned special robots with more than four axes are expected to achieve a revenue scale of 500 to 1 billion in the next five years.
Freely programmable automation equipment: other freely programmable automation equipment similar to AGV, suitable for domestic "low-end production capacity".
Medical robots: Domestic service robots will be one of the main development directions of the domestic robotics industry in the next few years. In particular, great progress has been made in medical robots. For example, the laparoscopic minimally invasive surgery robot of Harbin Institute of Technology will be clinically implemented within two years, and others such as rehabilitation Robots are also expected to be industrialized soon.
System integrators with a scale of more than 1 billion: With the gradual increase in system integration standardization and the emergence of more companies with cross-domain system integration capabilities, there will be many integrators with integrated business scales exceeding 1 billion, and there may be international Large-scale system integrator of economical ontology.
Other cutting-edge robotics technologies: At present, the domestic robotics industry is in an active period of innovation, and entrepreneurial robots may make innovative breakthroughs in robotic intelligence, robotic vision technology, human-computer interaction, etc., and achieve world-leading results.
(3) Three stages of the long-term development of the domestic robot industry
At this stage, my country's robotics industry is in the emerging stage, and we expect that the domestic robotics industry will continue to develop at this stage in the next 5 years. Later, with the advancement of global robot technology, the domestic industrial robot industry gradually matured. We expect the domestic robotics industry to develop vigorously in 15 years, when robots will enter the home, and service robots will experience explosive growth.
